The political scene in Spain this morning, after a cliffhanging night of election results, is that the right wing party, the Partido Popular won on paper but it is probably the left wing coalition of the PSOE Socialists and the left wing coalition, SUMAR, who have more chance of governing.
The PP has announced it will present its candidate for the presidency, however, even with the support of ultra-right wing VOX, they don´t reach the magic 176 votes needed for an absolute majority.
In theory this wouldn´t matter as a second vote in congress for the presidency only requires a simple majority but a PP coalition with VOX would almost mobilize a mass vote against them by the PSOE, SUMAR and the independent parties of Cataluña and the Basque country.
In exchange, the PSOE have been governing for the past four years with Podemos (now absorbed into SUMAR) and the support of the independent parties. They can certainly count on SUMAR and probably on the left wing independent parties. However, it is complicated.
Firstly, the Catalan independent parties have lost seats this time round so, even adding the votes of the Basque independent parties, the left wing coalition in the congress led by Pedro Sanchez, falls short of an absolute majority by two votes.
In this scenario the left wing coalition can only secure the presidency and govern if the right wing Catalan independent party JUNTS, (of Carlos Puigmont exiled in the EU since the «illegal» referendum in Cataluña which resulted in his left wing coalition partners being imprisoned and then being pardoned by Sanchez) votes with them or abstains.
Right wing, JUNTS is unlikely to vote with the left wing block but it is also unlikely to vote in any way which helps the PP/VOX coalition secure the presidency and govern. Particuarly, because VOX campaigned on extreme measures to suppress independence in Cataluña and the PP has always maintained an extremely tough stance against the independents.
The ultra right party, VOX, which denies gender violence, global warning and wages war against the LGBT community, lost 19 seats in the election and is a seriously weakened partner in a right wing coalition.
If neither of the two main parties, the PP and the PSOE, can secure a majority in congress to govern Spain faces a repeat General Election in December.
